Mountain Wolf
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 74
Ellis Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-12-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 44% | -0.45 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 28/12/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 06/03/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/06/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |