Spectacle

3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 83

Ellis Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength44%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-12	Lone Star	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-05-09	Lone Star	?	3rd	1st	+2	9.4
2026-01-08	Gulfstream	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2025-12-12	Gulfstream	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2025-10-21	Presque Isle Downs	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2025-08-31	Saratoga	?	10th	8th	+2	1.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 8

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▲

Strength98%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
31/08/2025	10th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
21/10/2025	5th	9/2	76%	33%	-0.43
12/12/2025	2nd	4/1	79%	83%	+0.04
08/01/2026	2nd	13/2	66%	86%	+0.20
09/05/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	75%	+0.28
12/06/2026	5th	5/2	87%	43%	-0.44