3
Spurgeon
4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 84
Ellis Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2024 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 17/01/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 15/02/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/03/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 23/04/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 01/06/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/08/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |