Big Dig
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 83
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |