Gypsan
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 90
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
24%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 25/01/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |