Nilo's Rose
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 83
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-12-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 27/04/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 08/06/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 26/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 22/01/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |