3
Progeny
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 85
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 19/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 01/01/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |