Swiftwind
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 86
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-01-04 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-11-22 | Remington Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 04/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 14/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 17/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |