Up The Creek
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 87
Ellis Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-02-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 18/04/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 15/05/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 14/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |