10
Argan
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 85
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 14/12/2025 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 10% | -0.51 |
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 08/03/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |