7
Icy River
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 93
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 08/03/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 22% | -0.60 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |