8
Margoinabubblebath
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 88
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2024-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2023 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 08/03/2024 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 30/04/2024 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 06/06/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |