4
Mombayla
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 80
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 10/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 08/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 11/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |