5
Musical Prayer
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 85
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 16/08/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 17/09/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |