1
Nursekringledances
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 78
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 18/06/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 08/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |