3
Protomagic
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 82
Ellis Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |