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9

Q's Your Mama

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 77

Ellis Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

50%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength9%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Oaklawn Park 15/03/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 64 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/03/2025 · OR 64 par15/03C5OR 64C5 @ Oaklawn Park 04/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2025 · OR 65 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 04/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 69 · 1m110y Fas 114 · below its mark04/01/2026 · OR 69 par4/01C8OR 69C8 @ Oaklawn Park 13/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 69 · 6f 117 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 69 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 66 · 6f 120 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 66 par13/03C8OR 66C8 @ Oaklawn Park 03/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 68 · 6f 118 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 68 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 74 · 6f 115 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 74 par30/04C8OR 74C8 @ Churchill Downs 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 73 · 6f 120 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 7f 118 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 81 par26/06C8OR 81projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-26Churchill Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-05-23Churchill Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-04-30Oaklawn Park?1st2nd−1
2026-04-03Oaklawn Park?3rd4th−1
2026-03-13Oaklawn Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-02-13Oaklawn Park?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0313/0230/0426/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/202510th25/10%18%+0.18
04/04/20257th20/10%14%+0.14
04/01/202611th7/163%0%-0.63
13/02/20266th7/163%55%-0.09
13/03/20262nd4/179%89%+0.10
03/04/20263rd10/382%71%-0.11
30/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
23/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
26/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16