3
Baytown Bruiser
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 16/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 21/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |