7
C Mcgriff
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 96
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |