4
Fountain Run
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 95
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 27/11/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |