1
Horse Of The Sea
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 88
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-02-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |