6
House United
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 97
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |