5
Indy Road
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 85
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Lone Star | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Lone Star | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-11-07 | Remington Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Remington Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Remington Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-09-07 | Remington Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 07/11/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |