2
Steel
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 96
Ellis Park · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 4th | +5 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength42%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 04/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 24/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |