8
Hot Mash
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 93
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
| 2025-08-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 55% | -0.38 |
| 04/06/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |