1
Judicious
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 94
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
91%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-24 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2024-08-11 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-07-05 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2024 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 11/08/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 24/07/2025 | 8th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |