2
Omaha Bay
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 92
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength83%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | -1th | +5 |
| 2025-12-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |