5
Tizianna
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 85
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-10-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 11/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 08/01/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |