7
Twirling Claire
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 101
Ellis Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |