8
Bourbon Flight
4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 91
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2024 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 45% | -0.26 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 12/04/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 24/05/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |