2
Feral
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 85
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-10 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 21/06/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |