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4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91

Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Oaklawn Park 19/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/04/2025 · OR 89 par19/04C6OR 89C9 @ Churchill Downs 07/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 97 · 1m110y Gd 118 · below its mark07/06/2025 · OR 97 parC6 @ Ellis Park 22/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 97 · 1m 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 97 par22/08C6OR 97C9 @ Churchill Downs 25/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 94 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 94 parC9 @ Churchill Downs 13/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fas 121 · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 92 par13/11C9OR 92C7 @ Oaklawn Park 03/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 90 · 1m Fas 124 · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 90 parC7 @ Oaklawn Park 21/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 91 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 91 par21/03C7OR 91C8 @ Churchill Downs 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 88 · 1m110y 124 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 88 parC7 @ Churchill Downs 26/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 89 · 1m110y Slo 124 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 89 par26/06C7OR 89projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-26Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2026-05-23Churchill Downs?6th7th−1
2026-03-21Oaklawn Park?4th4th0
2026-01-03Oaklawn Park?6th6th0
2025-11-13Churchill Downs?1st3rd−2
2025-09-25Churchill Downs?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0425/0921/0326/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength22%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/04/20255th4/179%50%-0.29
07/06/20253rd5/287%80%-0.07
22/08/20255th8/158%60%+0.02
25/09/20252nd9/488%80%-0.08
13/11/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
03/01/20266th8/158%55%-0.03
21/03/20264th15/261%25%-0.36
23/05/20266th8/158%17%-0.41
26/06/20264th16/116%70%+0.54