Sound Cause
4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 90
Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 22/03/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 27/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |