The Town

3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 96

Ellis Park · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 1m

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

49%

Place Prob

45%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-12	Ellis Park	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-06-20	Churchill Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-04-24	Gulfstream	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-03-29	Tampa Bay Downs	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-02-27	Gulfstream	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-01-29	Gulfstream	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 10

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength62%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/10/2025	2nd	2/1	89%	91%	+0.01
29/11/2025	2nd	10/3	82%	89%	+0.06
26/12/2025	3rd	8/13	97%	60%	-0.37
29/01/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	91%	+0.09
27/02/2026	1st	15/8	90%	100%	+0.10
29/03/2026	6th	11/10	94%	38%	-0.57
24/04/2026	6th	7/2	82%	17%	-0.65
20/06/2026	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14
12/07/2026	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29