2
Astar
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 83
Ellis Park · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 28/06/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 23/07/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 22/04/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 17/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |