4
Caragogo
3yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 88
Ellis Park · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 07/05/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |