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4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 87
Ellis Park · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 20/10/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 12/11/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 17/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |