6
Final Countdown
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81
Ellis Park · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2024 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 10/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/01/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 14/06/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |