11
Hovland
3yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 87
Ellis Park · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength34%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |