7
Mr. Vaggio
3yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 87
Ellis Park · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 21/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |