3
Home Reef
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 80
Fairview · Tab 4Racing App Middle Stakes · 1m 1f 208y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fairview | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Fairview | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/12/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 29/12/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/01/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 06/03/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |