Inishfallen

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 76

Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE IRISH RACING PARTNERSHIP Optional Claiming Race · 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲1

Strength35%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.8

Today:

Class gap: -1.3

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-28	Galway	BHA76	7th	8th	−1	1.7
2026-07-11	Limerick	BHA75	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-06-27	Curragh	BHA75	11th	12th	−1	1.0
2026-05-31	Listowel	BHA78	10th	12th	−1	1.0
2026-05-09	Naas	BHA81	6th	8th	−2	2.1
2026-04-01	Dundalk	BHA81	4th	6th	−2	4.1

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 14

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▲

Strength77%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/01/2026	4th	7/4	91%	57%	-0.34
06/02/2026	4th	5/2	87%	57%	-0.30
20/03/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	89%	+0.07
01/04/2026	4th	2/1	89%	73%	-0.17
09/05/2026	6th	9/2	76%	58%	-0.18
31/05/2026	10th	8/1	58%	25%	-0.33
27/06/2026	11th	11/1	42%	23%	-0.19
11/07/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	90%	+0.53
28/07/2026	7th	7/1	63%	57%	-0.06