13

Menwirr

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 60

Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE IRISH RACING PARTNERSHIP Optional Claiming Race · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Modest form at best in his qualifying runs. However, fitted with cheekpieces for handicap/turf debut he failed to improve when seventh of 13 at Redcar in May. Off since ahead of first start since leaving Archie Watson.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move2
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 25/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS25/0955 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 7f1y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS27/0354 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS6/0446 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 62 · 7f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 62 par26/056OR 62projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-26Redcar67th6th+1
2026-04-06Kempton410th7th+3
2026-03-27Lingfield55th3rd+2
2025-09-25Newcastle58th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0927/036/0426/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 14
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength91%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/09/20258th9/276%13%-0.64
27/03/20265th10/382%33%-0.49
06/04/202610th150/10%18%+0.18
26/05/20267th14/126%50%+0.24