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7

Profit Surge

5yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 62

Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE IRISH RACING PARTNERSHIP Optional Claiming Race · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden but has proved consistent, extending her run of placings to 5 when a close third in 16-runner handicap at Naas 4 days ago. Can give another good account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength72%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: BHA49
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA52 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 52 · 7f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 52 par17/1252OR 52BHA54 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 54 · 1m Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 54 parBHA54 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 54 · 1m Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 54 par6/0254OR 54BHA53 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 53 · 7f Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 53 parBHA52 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 52 · 7f111y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 52 par11/0552OR 52C7 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 51 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 51 parC7 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 6f25y Gd 134 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 60 par28/05C7OR 60C8 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 62 · 5f3y Gd 134 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 62 parBHA62 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 62 · 7f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 62 par3/0862OR 62projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03NaasBHA623rd3rd+0
2026-07-03Bellewstown?3rd5th−2
2026-05-28Fairyhouse?2nd2nd0
2026-05-20Gowran Park?2nd2nd0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA523rd1st+1
2026-02-13DundalkBHA536th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1213/0228/053/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength69%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/12/20252nd7/282%92%+0.11
23/01/20263rd11/486%83%-0.02
06/02/20266th6/168%62%-0.07
13/02/20266th7/282%58%-0.23
11/05/20263rd4/179%85%+0.06
20/05/20262nd8/158%83%+0.25
28/05/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
03/07/20263rd9/488%71%-0.17
03/08/20263rd7/163%87%+0.24