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12

Snowballs

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 39

Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE IRISH RACING PARTNERSHIP Optional Claiming Race · 7f

#14

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still looking for a breakthrough victory and hasn't been the easiest to catch right, running poorly without headgear in handicap at Cork (6f) last time. Visor back on as he tries this trip for the first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength82%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: BHA41
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA60 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/11/2025 · OR 60 par12/1160OR 60BHA56 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 56 · 5f Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 56 parBHA55 @ Dundalk 10/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 55 · 6f Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 55 par10/0455OR 55BHA51 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 51 · 5f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 51 parBHA48 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 48 · 5f Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 48 par19/0548OR 48BHA45 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 45 · 5f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 45 parBHA44 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 44 · 6f150y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 44 par11/0744OR 44BHA44 @ Down Royal 17/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 44 · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 44 parBHA41 @ Cork 24/07/2026 · Pos 18th of 19 · OR 41 · 6f GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 41 par24/0741OR 41projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24CorkBHA4118th15th+2
2026-07-17Down RoyalBHA448th6th+2
2026-07-11LimerickBHA449th7th+2
2026-06-24NaasBHA455th3rd+2
2026-05-19CorkBHA488th6th+2
2026-05-09NaasBHA517th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/119/0511/0724/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength36%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/11/20257th40/10%25%+0.25
01/04/20267th10/147%33%-0.14
10/04/20268th16/116%13%-0.03
09/05/20267th25/10%60%+0.60
19/05/20268th22/10%13%+0.13
24/06/20265th18/15%80%+0.75
11/07/20269th20/10%38%+0.38
17/07/20268th18/15%30%+0.25
24/07/202618th28/10%6%+0.06