Thurso
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 71
Gowran Park · 1XBET.IE IRISH RACING PARTNERSHIP Optional Claiming Race · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | BHA72 | 15th | 16th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA72 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Bath | 5 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 06/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 29/04/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 11/07/2026 | 15th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |