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Greydreambeliever

4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 89

Gowran Park · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win since debut but runner-up 3 times in handicaps this season, beaten twice by Rion Rubette over this C&D. Couldn't get especially competitive when fourth of 9 in listed race at Galway 8 days ago, though this should be more suitable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 11/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 80 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 80 par11/094OR 804 @ Hamilton 21/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 6f6y Sft 138 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 79 par3 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 79 par4/103OR 79BHA78 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 78 · 7f180y Sft 138 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 78 parBHA81 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 81 · 7f Sft 131 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 81 par22/0481OR 811 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 82 parBHA81 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 7f Yie 131 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 81 par12/0681OR 81BHA85 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 85 · 7f GF 128 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 85 par1 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 85 · 7f Yie 133 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 85 par30/071OR 85projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Galway14th4th0
2026-06-27CurraghBHA859th9th0
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA812nd2nd0
2026-05-17Naas16th6th0
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA812nd2nd0
2026-04-08Gowran ParkBHA782nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/098/0412/0630/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength9%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20255th8/158%60%+0.02
21/09/20253rd8/158%71%+0.14
04/10/20253rd10/147%71%+0.24
08/04/20262nd15/261%93%+0.33
22/04/20262nd2/189%90%+0.01
17/05/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
12/06/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
27/06/20269th9/276%20%-0.56
30/07/20264th20/10%63%+0.63