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4

Mallavelly

5yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 86

Gowran Park · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 3 times last season after joining this yard and bounced back to form when runner-up in premier handicap at the Curragh (7f) in June. Travelled best when third of 6 at the same course (1m) 19 days ago, so she's a major player back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA76 @ Limerick 21/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 76 · 1m Gd 136 · below its mark21/06/2025 · OR 76 par21/0676OR 76BHA76 @ Leopardstown 10/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 76 · 1m GF 136 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 76 parBHA84 @ Tipperary 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 84 · 7f100y Goo 140 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 84 par8/0884OR 841 @ Tipperary 31/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 89 · 7f110y Yie 133 · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 89 parBHA87 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 135 · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 87 par13/0987OR 871 @ Leopardstown 10/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 88 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 88 parBHA85 @ Leopardstown 04/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 85 · 7f20y Sft 137 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 85 par4/0685OR 85BHA83 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 83 · 7f GF 126 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 83 parBHA84 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 84 · 1m GF 135 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 84 par19/0784OR 84projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19CurraghBHA843rd3rd0
2026-06-27CurraghBHA832nd2nd0
2026-06-04LeopardstownBHA857th7th0
2026-05-10Leopardstown110th10th0
2025-09-13LeopardstownBHA873rd3rd0
2025-08-31Tipperary16th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0631/084/0619/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength96%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20255th5/174%60%-0.14
10/07/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
08/08/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
31/08/20256th22/10%44%+0.44
13/09/20253rd25/10%89%+0.89
10/05/202610th66/10%0%0.00
04/06/20267th8/158%33%-0.25
27/06/20262nd12/137%90%+0.53
19/07/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29