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8

Rebel Wave

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 79

Gowran Park · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took a step forward on third start when going close at Limerick in June, before showing a good attitude to win 11-runner maiden at the Curragh 20 days ago. Enters calculations with more still to offer on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 12917/05C8C8 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 7f Goo 12929/05C8C8 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 7f Sft 12919/06C8C8 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 78 par18/07C8OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Curragh?1st1st0
2026-06-19Limerick?2nd2nd0
2026-05-29Down Royal?6th6th0
2026-05-17Naas?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0529/0519/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20265th9/153%43%-0.10
29/05/20266th10/147%62%+0.14
19/06/20262nd11/271%92%+0.21
18/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21