2
Alfred Tennyson
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 76
Gowran Park · Edward Doran's Birthday Handicap · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: BHA75
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA75 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | BHA77 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Limerick | BHA77 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA77 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA75 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | BHA76 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 26/06/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 18/07/2026 | 16th | 66/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 86% | +0.80 |